Actress Shilpa Shetty promotes

NZD/USD (0.7068) is down. On the weekly chart, the modest downtrending channel in place since Oct’09 remains in place, but so does uptrending support from the early-’09 low.

Technicals:

• Trend: Daily crossing higher; Weekly crossing higher.

• Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily neutral; Weekly oversold.

• Support/Resistance: Resistance lies at 0.7179 (Mar17 high), 0.7442 (Jan14 high), 0.7500 (psychological) and 0.7635 (Oct21 high). Support lies at 0.6995 (Mar24 low), 0.6852 (Mar4 low), 0.6848 (Feb25 low), 0.6808 (Feb5 low), and 0.6594 (Jun high).

Positioning

• The CFTC non-commercial, net position rose to 5.5K, but it remains relatively neutral.

• The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) is still in the upper end of the 6-month range – suggesting downside risk for NZD/USD.

• Implied Vol (3m) is down and still near the low since Aug’08.

Cross-asset valuations: The strongest correlates for NZD/USD during the past two months have been AUD/USD (positive), the USD index (negative), stocks (S&P500, positive) and commodities (CRB index, positive).